Archive for June, 2010

June 30, 2010

Perceived value

YAY!!!!

A while ago I noticed that a particular piece of thinking that has been carried over from the tangible world of sales and product/service driven business into the less tangible, more abstract world of social and non-sales orientated online business.

In the world of tangibles if a particular action has a perceived value, then there is a push from the business to lower the barrier to action, this can vary from access to a brochure or information pack all the way through to a sale of an item. The reason this works is because a sale has a physical price there is a physical value, so by looking at conversion ratios we are able to attribute a value to the brochure.

The problem with lowering these barriers starts to come when the entire value proposition of the action is the effort that went into it.

Case in point; Facebook removed ‘Fan’ and replaced it with ‘Like’ as they noticed people “liked” things with a lot less thought, therefor brands would be able to grow their pages with more ease. The issue here is that by lowering this barrier they have diluted the value proposition. If we make some very generous assumptions and say that a customer that is also a Facebook ‘Fan’ spent on average $5 more per year than a customer who is not a Facebook ‘Fan’ then this number will inevitably go down when the brand starts to attract less interested ‘likes.’

In many ways we can draw a comparison to what has happened to online advertising, publishers inflated their impressions in an attempt to squeeze more money from advertisers, however by inflating volume the response rates dropped. Advertisers realised that this meant they needed to serve more of these impressions to get the same value, thus the per-impression value of the site was diminished and the incremental gain to the publisher was lost. Thus the downward spiral begins.

Of course, all of this is based on the assumption that there is any real incremental value to a Facebook fan to begin with. So far all attempts I have seen to report on dollar values for this kind of activity have been using methodology that ranges from questionable to retarded.

Moving beyond this some would argue that the value is the ability to deliver messages to this audience and engage with them on an ongoing basis, which is terrific, as long as they are spending more money than people who aren’t involved in that engagement, because every line you read, every word you type has a head hour against it and those cost the business money.

So if you’re attracting more ‘Likes’ than you were ‘Fans’ you might want to hold off on that self congratulatory back pat and avoid sending out that smug tweet to all your social media strategy expert guru pals, because it’s highly likely that you’re increasing quantity at the sacrifice of quality.

June 29, 2010

ROI?

A long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far away a group of free thinkers far more advanced than we came up with a most earth shattering concept known as return on investment. The basic idea of this concept was that when you invest in something you want to achieve a positive return on that investment, it is most commonly expressed as the below formulas:
Standard ROI calculations

And less frequently like this:
ZOMG SOCIAL MEDIA

Now some would argue that not all of the above are correct, however I’ll leave that for you to ponder a while.

June 25, 2010

A bastards guide to: skepticism

Hi, my name is Joel and I’m a bastard.

I’m that guy that sits in your presentation and then at the end asks you for the sources of the various stats as well as what the exact question asked was and the who/when/where’s of the sample group. I know this annoys you, I can see it in your eyes. That mixture of anger, irritation and ever-so-slight fear that you will be caught flogging off your biased and untrustworthy data.

The thing that bothers me is that a lot of people in digital media (in particular social) seem to immediately forget the most basic elements of statistical analysis, the kind of basic stuff that should be common sense for anyone who sits and actually thinks about what they’re looking at, things like the difference between correlation and causality. Recently I have been having a bit of a rant about the sheer volume of misleading ‘research’ that has been published about Facebook in an attempt to give clear monetary value to “fans,” an effort that will never make sense anyway because each ‘fan’ is unique, it is not the same as a conversion/sale. I was going to write about why their study was deeply flawed in every way, but The Adcontrarian did it for me.

It wouldn’t be such an issue if they admitted fault when people call bullshit on their stupid buzz-videos (side note: reading the comments below this video will actually cause hemorrhaging of the brain, the stupidity is that dense) but instead they try to argue that the figures have value by referring to “research” that backs up the numbers, however this “research” is usually highly biased and funded by interested parties, not only this but the figures they quote are taken dramatically out of context.

If digital media as an industry really wants to start seeing significant investment from brands we need to step up to the table and be honest with advertisers, we need to tell them realistic information, not a bunch of pseudo-scientific stats that immediately set off the bullshit detector of everyone in the room. This current approach is akin to a kid telling you he caught a fish thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis big, no one believes them, but its cute that they try to trick you.

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